Antarctic Ambitions: China’s Expansion and New Zealand’s Scott Base Redevelopment
As New Zealand moves forward with the redevelopment of Scott Base, China has submitted plans for its sixth station on the continent.
Earlier this month, Antarctica New Zealand announced the selection of a new contractor to assist with the design and delivery of the redevelopment of Scott Base. The base is New Zealand’s only Antarctic research station, located 3800km south of Christchurch and 1350km from the South Pole.
The announcement marks an important step forward for a technically challenging project that has been beset with delays and cost-overruns over the last nine years.
An indicative business case prepared by Antarctica New Zealand in 2016 noted that Scott Base was nearing the end of its functional life and that its deteriorating condition was creating multiple single points of failure which were increasing the risk to life and the achievement of New Zealand’s strategic interests.
It estimated the overall cost of redevelopment to be between $140M to $170M. However, rising construction costs and logistical complexities in Antarctica led to significant budget increases over subsequent years.
In 2023, the redevelopment was put on hold and a review commissioned to reconsider the design and budget due to the cost to build and deliver the three interconnected buildings exceeding the budgeted amount of $498M.
In May this year, the new Scott Base Redevelopment Masterplan was approved. Preparations are now in progress to submit a detailed business case to Cabinet by mid-2026.
The masterplan proposes a three-stage redevelopment of Scott Base over the next 20-50 years, starting with the oldest and most dilapidated facilities.
As part of Stage 1, a new Base Services building will be constructed for living and accommodation, with the Hillary Field Centre refurbished for science activity. Critical plant and services will be replaced or upgraded, along with the replacement of the Ross Island Wind Energy system to help power Scott Base and McMurdo Station.
The masterplan estimates that the Stage 1 costs are now $368M at a minimum and $496M for the preferred option, for completion by 2030.
The redevelopment of Scott Base comes at a time when Antarctica is emerging as a frontier of growing geopolitical interest, with nations seeking to bolster their presence on the icy continent.
China’s expanding footprint in Antarctica, particularly with the opening of its fifth research station, Qinling, in February 2024, has raised eyebrows among some Antarctic Treaty partners.
China’s Antarctic program has grown significantly since establishing its first station, Great Wall, in 1985. The Qinling Station, located in the Ross Sea region, approximately 350–400 kilometres from Scott Base and the American’s McMurdo Station, joins Zhongshan, Kunlun, Taishan, and Great Wall stations, marking China’s third permanent base.
Recently, China has submitted a draft environmental evaluation for a sixth base, which is intended to be a new summer research station located at the isolated Marie Byrd Land. Although China has emphasised its commitment to scientific and environmental research, some analysts have expressed concern over potential dual-use applications of its facilities.
The Antarctic Treaty System, established in 1959, governs Antarctica with a commitment to preserving the continent for scientific research and preventing nuclear proliferation. In practice, however, the absence of a formal governing authority or permanent human settlements beyond researchers and support personnel creates ambiguity around sovereignty on the continent.
China has said that there is no “geopolitical motive” behind the ongoing expansion of its operations in Antarctica, including its newly lodged plans for the seasonal station at Marie Byrd Land.
However in 2022, a US Defense Department report said China’s increased presence in Antarctica was, “likely intended to strengthen its position for future claims to natural resources and maritime access”.
The report also said China’s “strategy for Antarctica” included dual-use technologies, which can have both scientific and military applications.
It said the use of such technologies, “are likely intended, at least in part, to improve the People’s Liberation Army capabilities”.
That assessment is shared by some in Australia. Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, has suggested that China’s activities extend beyond short-term scientific goals, potentially aiming to secure resource and strategic advantages, unlike most Treaty members.
Australia’s concerns are fuelled by China’s resistance, alongside South Korea and Russia, to expanding protected marine areas in the Ross Sea, prioritised for conservation in 2016, to restrict krill harvesting.
In 2023, Shanghai Chonghe Marine Industry commissioned the construction of the world’s largest krill-fishing vessel, slated for completion in 2024, at a time when some nations are scaling back their Antarctic fishing operations.
Krill, a small crustacean vital to the Antarctic marine ecosystem, is processed in China for oil and animal feed, with the krill-oil market projected to exceed US$400 million by the end of 2025. However, its critical role in sustaining Antarctic sea life raises concerns about overfishing.
According to Professor Klaus Dodds, Professor of Geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London, some fear that fishing and environmental research, particularly by nations such as China and Russia, may serve as a precursor to future resource extraction.
The Antarctic Treaty is of vital importance to New Zealand's security. Yet it has been so effective in preserving Antarctica for "peaceful purposes only" for nearly 70 years, it is easily taken for granted. New Zealand is right to strengthen its presence in the Ross Sea region while maintaining its territorial claim to the Ross Dependency. We also need to bolster our surveillance capabilities in the Southern Ocean to detect and deter illegal or unregulated resource exploitation. International interest and competition are only likely to continue to grow in the decades ahead.