Chinese Warships in the Tasman Sea: An Unprecedented Pacific Signal
The case for New Zealand to join Pillar Two of AUKUS now appears to be compelling.
The presence of three Chinese warships - the cruiser Zunyi, the frigate Hengyang, and the supply ship Weishanhu - conducting live-firing exercises in the Tasman Sea has sparked alarm in New Zealand and Australia.
Positioned roughly 340 nautical miles east of New South Wales, after earlier nearing within 150 nautical miles of Sydney, the Chinese naval task group has disrupted commercial flight paths and drawn intense scrutiny. When viewed alongside the Cook Islands’ new strategic partnership with China and the warnings given by Sir Alex Younger in an interview on BBC Newsnight last week, this incident underscores a broader shift from the international rules-based order towards a multi-polar world of hard power. A situation which strengthens the case for New Zealand to join Pillar Two of AUKUS.
China’s foreign ministry called the exercises routine “far seas” operations, lawfully conducted under international norms. Yet their proximity to Australia and New Zealand’s exclusive economic zones, without prior notice, has rattled both countries.
Minister of Defence Judith Collins said that China began live-firing activity in the Tasman Sea on Friday, followed by a second round on Saturday afternoon.
“We are aware of reporting from the New Zealand Defence Force that the Chinese naval Task Group has advised of a second window for live firing activity, on Saturday afternoon New Zealand time,” Collins said.
Australian P-8s are now tracking the fleet, as airlines reroute.
For Younger, the UK’s former MI6 chief from 2014 to 2020, this fits a broader pattern:
“I think we are in a new era, where by and large international relations aren’t going to be determined by rules and multilateral institutions. They’re going to be determined by strong men and deals. I think of the Yalta Treaty at the end of 1945 where three strong men, as they were then, on behalf of the big countries decided the fate of small countries. I think that’s Donald Trump’s mindset. It’s certainly Putin’s mindset. It’s Xi Jinping’s mindset. It’s not Europe’s mindset. That’s the world we’re going into for a whole set of reasons and I don’t think we’re going back to the one we had before.”
Last week on BBC Newsnight, Younger added:
“We’re seeing deals. We’re seeing conversations of spheres of influence, and I think the only people that haven’t woken up to this reality is us [Europe]. And there’s an entry ticket to this conversation, it appears, and sadly it’s not our soft power or our values - it’s hard power, and it leaves the category challenge for us in Europe: how do we develop that to get us a seat in this conversation.”
Australia and New Zealand face the same imperative, jolted by China’s unexpected boldness. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese dubbed the drills “unusual”, a restrained reaction which drew fire from the opposition for its perceived weakness. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong criticised Beijing’s opacity while New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon said the NZDF was “continuously monitoring, tracking and shadowing the movements of this fleet in conjunction with our Australian friends and partners and we will continue to do so”.
Yet a Defence Ministry briefing from October 2024, released Thursday, shows New Zealand still in a holding pattern on AUKUS Pillar Two, with officials weighing ‘long-term policy, regional, bilateral, and economic implications.’ The Tasman Sea events shift that calculus—joining Pillar Two now appears to be urgent.
The Cook Islands’ strategic partnership with China, signed this month during PM Mark Brown’s Beijing visit, adds context. Covering trade, infrastructure, and seabed minerals, it’s rattled New Zealand, which shares a ‘free association’ with the Pacific nation. Wellington has sought transparency, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters expressing a desire for a ‘reset’ in the relationship.
Whilst not a security pact, this arrangement when paired with the Tasman Sea exercises, hints at Beijing’s intent to blend economic and military leverage - an alarming signal for Pacific security.
Indeed, Australia’s ABC has reported that privately Australian and U.S. officials believe that this demonstration of naval strength could be a preview of, “further and more assertive Chinese military activity deep into this region”.
This unprecedented action strengthens the argument for New Zealand to join Pillar Two of AUKUS, the Australia-U.K.-U.S. pact designed to counter China’s Pacific rise. Pillar One equips Australia with nuclear submarines, but Pillar Two offers advanced tools - AI, cyber defences and hypersonic weapons - to enhance deterrence without nuclear commitments.
Wellington’s hesitation now looks untenable after the Tasman Sea events. Joining AUKUS would align New Zealand with Western allies, meeting Younger’s strength threshold and providing access to capabilities needed to counter emerging threats.
Younger’s spheres of influence lens casts this as a regional wake-up call: power projection is essential to retain influence. The disruptions over the weekend to trans-Tasman commercial flights are a minor ripple compared to the strategic questions now facing Canberra and Wellington.
Australia’s path is clear - deepen AUKUS commitments. For New Zealand, the case appears to be compelling - join Pillar Two promptly, as Younger’s logic demands, or risk lagging behind in an era where power, rather than rules-based norms, will increasingly prevail.
These unprecedented events occurred at the same time as Hagley Park in Christchurch hosted a pair of part-day concerts for younger people. Soccer too predominates the horizon. These entertainments form the heart of our nation’s worldview. The significance of “hard force” and “deals” among those who can solidly project it, casting aside even those (like Ukraine) who are directly in the firing line, seem utterly foreign. How to wake up this slothful crowd of mere consumers our population has become might just overshadow anything Luxon and Co. have imagined their ‘policy making’ to be, let alone its concrete execution. Dear Winnie; your lone voice is echoing once more … The consequences of deafness are incomparable to what you had to contend with.
The global economy is becoming increasingly complex . With complexity comes entropy and by association and increasing energy requirement to “maintain” the networks creating this complexity. Much of what we are seeing will be blamed on politics but this is just how energy scarcity manifests. We look across the fence at our neighbours and covet what they have.