Germany Votes: Early Results, Early Calls
Turnout is reported to be 84% - the highest since 1990 and the result roughly where opinion polls predicted.
As New Zealand starts its working week, Germany’s Sunday election is still playing out as the Federal Republic picks its next Bundestag in a snap vote forced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapse last November, with early voting results now starting to roll in.
It is only the fourth snap election in the history of post-war Germany after those in 1972, 1983 and 2005.
The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) had steered a fractured “traffic light” alliance with the left-wing Greens and centrist Free Democratic Party (FDP) since 2021. However, disputes over Ukraine aid, green spending, and budget limits imploded the coalition when the Chancellor fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner in November 2024.
That decision broke up Germany’s first three-way federal coalition, and led Scholz to call for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, which he lost on January 15 (by 207 votes in favour, 394 against and 116 abstentions). Shortly thereafter, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the legislature and called elections for February 23, six months ahead of the previously set date of September 28.
As German polls shut at 5am NZT this morning, early exit polls predict the centre-right CDU/CSU at 28.5–29%, topping the pack but shy of the 31–32% some pre-election polls floated. The far-right AfD lands second at 19.5–20%, its best result ever, while Olaf Scholz’s SPD slumps to 16–17%, its worst post-war dip.
The Greens are predicted to hit 11–13.5%, Die Linke surges to 8–8.5%, and the FDP teeters at 4.9–5%, risking a wipe-out if it dips below Germany’s 5% MMP threshold or fails to win three direct seats.
There doesn’t appear to be any Elon Musk or JD Vance boost and the AfD’s rise tracks pre-election trends, not a late US spike. Coalition talks could be complicated but these early results put CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz on track to be the next Chancellor.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already conceded defeat.
“This is a bitter election result for the Social Democratic Party,” the incumbent chancellor has said in his first remarks after the polls closed.
“It is also an election defeat, and I think that needs to be made clear at the outset.”
Friedrich Merz hailed a “terrific election campaign” but spoke of his “respect for our political opponents”.
“Everybody in the world sees that Germany has a reliable and trustworthy government,” he said.
“Tonight we will be celebrating and as of tomorrow we will be resuming our work.”
Germany’s Mixed-Member Proportional system - akin to New Zealand’s but stricter - gives two votes: one for local candidates (299 seats) and one for party lists. A law change in 2023 capped the Bundestag at 630 seats, scrapping “overhangs”. Unlike New Zealand, where direct winners keep extra seats, Germany now trims excess direct seats if the list vote falls short of its proportional share.
Overhangs have plagued Germany’s electoral system - 299 constituency seats let parties like the CDU/CSU rack up excess local wins (138 seats in 2021) which caused the Bundestag to bloat to 733 seats, making it the largest freely elected parliament in the world.
By contrast, New Zealand’s 72 electorate seats (65 general and 7 Māori) rarely skew far - overhangs usually peak at one or two seats, constituting only a small quirk.
For New Zealand, trade is at stake in this election. We export approximately $1.8 billion to Germany making it our biggest EU market (mostly dairy and meat), though that’s down from over $2 billion in 2019 before COVID hit. That pre-COVID peak was based on strong dairy and meat demand, but the pandemic cut volumes - meat exports alone dropped 23% in 2020 - and Germany’s demand hasn’t fully snapped back despite price gains since.
The predicted CDU/CSU win under Friedrich Merz will probably see an increase in Germany’s defence spending, now approximately 2% of GDP, as Trump’s US pulls back on Ukraine, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, urges EU member countries to pick up the slack. Merz has suggested approximately 3% but there may be pressure from von der Leyen and others for it to be higher. That could tighten German consumer wallets or green funds, hitting New Zealand’s export returns.
Coalition talks will shape Germany’s next moves, and history offers a wide window - from the 73 days it took to seal 2021’s “traffic light” deal (SPD, Greens, FDP) to the 171 days of 2017’s CDU/CSU-SPD “grand coalition”, which stretched into mid-March 2018 after a “Jamaican” CDU-Greens-FDP bid collapsed.
As Germany’s polls closed at 5am NZT this morning, the CDU/CSU and SPD appear poised to form another grand coalition, much like they did in 2017, even though the FDP’s shaky 4.9–5% showing leaves a slim chance for a “Jamaican” alternative and the AfD’s robust 20% ensures it remains a side-lined but loud presence.
Negotiations between the CDU/CSU, polling at 28.5–29%, and the SPD reeling from its post-war low of 16–17% won’t be straightforward - disagreements over policies like Friedrich Merz’s call to boost defence spending beyond 2% of GDP, coupled with the SPD’s bruised morale after Scholz’s defeat, could see talks stretch anywhere from two months to as long as half a year.
Pre-election polls had the CDU near 30% and SPD around 15%, numbers these early exits mirror closely, yet that consistency offers little assurance of a smooth or speedy resolution.
Disappointing to see you repeating the lie that the AFD is “far right”. There was a small sub group* within its members who were but they were expelled. Legacy media, more than 90% of which is owned by lefty oligarchs or conglomerates is responsible for creating this view.
* it is true that there was a group within the party, known as the Saxonian Separatists [“Saechsische Separatisten”], a monarchist, autonomist, and secessionist movement but members of that group were being expelled from the AFD itself. We have family and friends in Germany and they are no more far right than we are. Ordinary people there have had enough of their left wing coalition, which is akin to NZ having a coalition of Labour, Greens and TPM. Both countries have the same MMP system. It very much suits our lefty legacy media, Stuff, 1 News, RadioNZ et al to portray anything to do with the AFD as “far right”.
I don’t think it’s clear yet if AfD is Far or just Right. Its leadership changes and with it its positions on various issues. Is it pro or anti Israel? One faction pro, the other anti. Merz has ruled it out so it looks like a Grand Coalition will be the result.