New Zealand’s MMP Journey: Lessons from Germany’s Electoral Long Game

NZ’s Political Centre Stays Strong as Germany’s Splinters

New Zealand’s move to Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) representation in 1996 unlocked the old two-party grip of Labour and National and ushered in the multi-party era. Achieving greater representation in Parliament was, after all, one of the drivers for reforming the electoral system at that time.

Nearly three decades later, the vote shares of the two main parties in New Zealand have slid from highs above 40% to long-term averages hovering in the 25–30% range.

Germany’s use of MMP since 1949 offers a longer lens by which to analyse the effects of MMP. The snap election on February 23, left its main parties, the right-leaning CDU/CSU at 28.6% and left-leaning SPD at 16.4%, a stark contrast to their past dominance.

Increasing vote splintering in Germany has given birth to grand coalitions between the two main parties on several occasions over the last three decades. For New Zealand’s political class, Germany’s seven-decade run of the MMP system signals a future of tighter margins and increasing coalition complexity—yet New Zealand’s combined vote share for its two main parties remains higher than Germany’s at present.

Vote Share Erosion: From Dominance to Drift—or Resilience?

Under First-Past-the-Post, Labour and National owned near-majorities—Labour hit 47.96% in 1987, National 47.82% in 1990, often topping 90% combined.

MMP rewrote the script. In New Zealand’s first MMP election held in 1996, National took 33.87%, Labour 28.19%—62.06% together.

Peaks like Labour’s 41.10% in 2005, National’s 44.45% in 2017, and Labour’s 50.01% in 2020—a Covid outlier—bucked the trend, but over 2002–2023, Labour has averaged 33% while National has averaged 35%, with lows of 25.13% for Labour in 2014 and 25.58% for National in 2020.

Yet the 2023 election result of National 38.06% and Labour 26.91%—64.97% combined—exceeds 1996’s two-party haul, suggesting NZ’s centre has so far resisted the smaller parties’ bite more than Germany’s fracturing majors.

Germany’s slide has been steep. The CDU/CSU (50.2%, 1957) and SPD (42.9%, 1976) once split 80–90%. The Greens (1980s), Left Party (1990s), and AfD (2010s) eroded that—by the 1990s, the CDU/CSU averaged 38.5% and the SPD 37.6%; by the 2010s, they averaged 28.5% and 21.8% respectively.

In 2021, they fell to 24.1% and 25.7% (49.8% combined); and in last week’s election, they hit 28.6% and 16.4% with a combined total of just 45%. Germany’s centre has undoubtedly waned over time—by contrast, New Zealand’s combined 62–65% over a span of 27 years hints at a sturdier core, for the time being at least.

Smaller Parties: NZ’s Fluctuating Players and Germany’s Rising Forces

New Zealand’s MMP system sparked a dynamic smaller-party landscape although there were some minor parties in the earlier FPP system.

Early players like Mana Motuhake, which merged into Jim Anderton’s Alliance by the mid-1990s, and Peter Dunne’s United Party flared then faded—while United dwindled by 2000 and Alliance followed in 2002.

In contrast, the 2023 election showcased the resilience of the current smaller parties: ACT at 8.64%, NZ First at 6.08% making a parliamentary comeback, the Greens at 11.6%, and Te Pāti Māori at 3.08%, tripling to six seats.

However, Germany’s minors are becoming major forces, though the AfD remains excluded from coalitions. The February 2025 snap election saw the AfD double its haul to 20.8% from 10.3% in 2021, vaulting it to the Bundestag’s second-biggest party, alongside the Greens at 11.6% and Die Linke at 8.5%.

Coalitions: Grand Standoffs or Minor Mates?

Germany’s vote splitting has bred grand coalitions between its two major parties—the CDU/CSU and SPD have teamed up in 2005–2009, 2013–2018, and 2018–2021.

The February 2025 election’s combined result of 45% has set the stage for another grand coalition. CDU leader Friedrich Merz has ruled out talks with the AfD, and preliminary results give the CDU/CSU (208 seats) and SPD (120 seats) a total of 328 seats—enough for a slim Bundestag majority of 316, assuming no further adjustments in the final count due by March 14.

As of now, coalition talks are underway, with Merz expressing a desire to finalise an agreement quickly, though analysts suggest late spring (April–May 2025) is more realistic given historical negotiation timelines.

Talk of a “Kenya” coalition—CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens (85 seats), totalling 413 seats persists as an alternative which would offer a stronger majority. However, stark divides over migration, the debt brake, and energy policy complicate this option, with some SPD and Green leaders reportedly lukewarm on partnering with Merz’s more conservative CDU wing.

New Zealand has so far avoided such partnerships between the two major parties. Labour and National, forged in FPP’s crucible, prefer instead to team up with the smaller parties. Even at 25% lows (Labour 2014, National 2020), they dodged grand alliances, relying instead on the support of smaller party allies.

If both Labour and National hit 20–25%, a grand coalition could loom but so far New Zealand’s smaller-party dance has kept that prospect at bay.

Policy: Centre Stabilises, Edges Sharpen

Germany’s grand coalitions typically trade innovation for stability. The CDU/CSU and SPD, at 20–25% each, churn out Merkelesque caution. The Greens push climate, the AfD focuses on immigration and crime, regularly stealing the policy spotlight.

New Zealand echoes this scenario to some extent. Labour and National tend to focus on stability, while ACT, NZ First, and the Greens often introduce more distinct policy ideas. United and Alliance once offered distinct voices; Te Pāti Māori contributes its own today. At 25% or below, a grand coalition might lock New Zealand’s centre into policy stagnation, ceding policy ideas to the smaller parties to the extent they haven’t already done so.

New Zealand’s MMP Road Ahead

Germany’s 76-year MMP experience could predict New Zealand’s next act: slimmer margins and increasingly complicated coalition arrangements. Labour and National’s 65% in 2023—exceeding 1996’s 62%—contrasts with Germany’s 45% combined share for its two main parties, highlighting a difference in their MMP trajectories so far. However, if support shifts further to the smaller parties, grand coalitions could emerge in New Zealand as they have in Germany.