Operation Midnight Hammer: US Strikes on Iran

Yesterday, the US President Donald Trump took decisive action against Iran.

For weeks now speculation about potential US military action against Iran’s nuclear programme has dominated the news. The commentary has ranged from the measured analysis of geopolitical experts to the hysterical pronouncements of social media charlatans. Yet, in an extraordinary twist, the most prescient forecast of President Donald Trump’s strategy appears to have come not from military commentators or political pundits, but from Hollywood.

At the 19-minute mark of Tom Cruise’s 2022 blockbuster Top Gun: Maverick, the mission is laid out to ‘Maverick’ with striking clarity: “The target is an unsanctioned uranium enrichment plant built in violation of a multi-lateral NATO treaty. The uranium produced there represents a direct threat to our allies in the region.” The plant is buried deep beneath a mountain in an unnamed Middle Eastern country. Yesterday, this Hollywood plot became reality as the US launched precision strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities located at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan as part of Operation Midnight Hammer.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, confirmed at a joint press conference with Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, several hours ago that the operation involved seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers flying non-stop for approximately 18 hours from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to Iran in order to drop 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs on the Fordow and Natanz facilities. Hegseth confirmed that it was the second longest B-2 Spirit mission on record, only surpassed by a mission flown in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Caine noted that more than 125 US miliary aircraft were involved in the Operation including refuelling, surveillance, fighters, bombers and decoy aircraft making it the largest B-2 operational strike in US history.

The 30,000 pound (13,600 kg) precision-guided ‘bunker buster’ bombs are designed to be dropped from altitudes up to 50,000 feet and reach speeds in excess of Mach 1 before they penetrate up to 200 feet (61 metres) through reinforced concrete or rock. The first two MOPs were dropped on their target at 2:10am local time marking the first ever operational use of this weapon. Caine told reporters that they did not believe that any shots were fired at the US strike force whilst they were in Iranian airspace.

In addition to the MOPs, thirty tomahawk missiles were launched from an Ohio-class nuclear powered submarine at the Natanz and Esfahan facilities. The US Naval Institute News noted that the Ohio-class USS Georgia, which can carry more than 150 tomahawk missiles, had entered the Middle East region in September. In total, Hegseth confirmed that 75 precision-guided weapons were used in the Operation.

The former reality TV star, President Trump, watched the strikes from the White House Situation Room and described the outcome as a “spectacular military success,” claiming the facilities were, “completely and totally obliterated.” Both Hegseth and Caine stated that the battle damage assessment was still on-going although they believed that all of the munitions struck where intended and had the desired effect.

Iranian officials have downplayed the damage, claiming that the facilities have been emptied months ago and that their nuclear programme remains intact. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that it has not detected any increase in radiation levels which suggests the strikes were precise. The Fordow facility, buried deep beneath a mountainside, was the primary target due to its role in producing highly enriched uranium, which the IAEA recently reported had reached 408kg at 60% purity - enough, if further refined, for multiple nuclear weapons.

Whether the Iranians were weeks, months or years away from producing nuclear weapons will no doubt be the subject of debate for the foreseeable future.

The apparent immediate success of the operation echoes the high-stakes triumph depicted in Top Gun: Maverick. Yet, as the dust settles, the international community awaits Iran’s response. The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was the first to issue a statement describing the attack as, “a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law and the non-proliferation treaty” and stating that Iran reserves, “all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.”

Options range from missile strikes on US bases in the Middle East, attacks on international shipping, and asymmetric tactics, such as drone swarms or proxy attacks. Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles, although diminished by recent Israeli strikes, remains formidable. However, the regime’s capacity to escalate seems to be increasingly constrained by its domestic challenges, including energy shortages and economic strain, as well as the effects of Israel’s recent attacks on its military leadership, missile launchers and infrastructure.

The international community is still assessing the situation before making definitive statements although many countries, including Saudi Arabia and India, have already expressed their grave concern about the situation. An early indication of support for the US action came from the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer who said, “Iran’s nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security. Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat.”

Consistent with the statement given by Ministers Winston Peters and Judith Collins on Sunday afternoon, Starmer called on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end the crisis.

There will certainly be heated debate about whether the US strikes were legal. The President’s Constitutional powers include the authority not only to order the use of military force to defend the United States against actual or anticipated attacks, but also to advance other important national interests. Presidents of both parties have deployed US forces and ordered the use of military force, without congressional authorisation, on numerous occasions.

The Constitution does however require the approval of Congress to “declare War,” although the scope of this authority has never been interpreted to require congressional authorisation for every military action that the President could initiate.

Maverick Republican Congressman Thomas Massie was quick to claim that the strikes were not constitutional due to lack of congressional approval. However, this was immediately rebutted by House Speaker Mike Johnson who said, “Leaders in Congress were aware of the urgency of this situation and the Commander-in-Chief evaluated that the imminent danger outweighed the time it would take for Congress to act … The President fully respects the Article I power of Congress, and tonight’s necessary, limited, and targeted strike follows the history and tradition of similar military actions under presidents of both parties.”

Despite the legal uncertainty, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the US strikes. More generally, some Israeli officials have hinted at the possibility of regime change as a by-product of the military action over the last two weeks. Indeed, Republican Senator Ted Cruz revealed in an interview last week that when he had met the Israeli Prime Minister last year, Netanyahu had speculated that the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at the end of September 2024 had removed vital support from the Syrian leadership which had quickly led to the dictator Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Russia ten weeks later.

It remains to be seen whether the elimination of a number of senior leaders within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp will have a similar effect on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s leadership but, in any event, regime change is increasingly inevitable.

The US has informed Iran through diplomatic channels that it is not seeking regime change, undoubtedly chastened by its experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, it is also a pragmatic stance given the advanced age and frail health of the Supreme Leader. At 86, having already survived prostate cancer, Khamenei’s remaining time as leader is limited by his age to a far greater degree than younger dictators such as Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi, who faced Western interventions whilst still in their prime.

Despite years of international sanctions and the advancing age of their leadership, the Islamic Republic’s clerical establishment has demonstrated remarkable resilience over the decades, surviving uprisings like the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” protests. Yet, a critical uncertainty now looms for the theocracy: can the aging Khamenei maintain his grip on power long enough to orchestrate a stable transition, or will a weakened regime face internal collapse or external predation?

For Trump, the real measure of success will be whether he can avoid getting bogged down in the Middle East, and instead pivot the US miliary towards China and redouble his efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. If international wars overshadow his domestic agenda, as they did with George W. Bush, then Trump will be judged harshly at the midterm elections at the end of 2026 by his MAGA base.

For now, Trump waits whilst Iran’s leadership weighs up what its response to the US and Israeli attacks will be. A weak response risks projecting vulnerability, whilst any perceived over-reaction could provoke further US or Israeli military action. Early indications are that the Iranian Parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly a quarter of the global oil passes through. In order to come into effect, a final decision needs to be taken by Iran’s Supreme Council.

Global markets are bracing for impact when trading resumes with oil prices expected to spike. Brent crude, currently at around US$72, could climb toward US$130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, according to JPMorgan.

As the IAEA convenes an emergency meeting and global powers weigh diplomatic options, the region teeters on the edge of escalation or uneasy stalemate. The script of Top Gun: Maverick has been played out, but the next sequel has not yet been written.